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draft strategy

Buy Kenny Golladay Before It's Too Late

07/12/2018Anthony Amico

In 2017, the fantasy landscape was quickly impacted by a batch of rookies. Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, and JuJu Smith-Schuster were huge difference-makers on many winning teams. But what about the players who didn’t break out? Kenny Golladay was someone fantasy gamers were excited about entering 2017, but things didn’t quite pan out as they would have liked. That doesn’t mean he can’t do it in 2018. Here’s why you should be buying Golladay before it’s too late.

Pass Volume

The Lions have been towards the top of the league in pass attempts for years. Their attempts and league rank over the seven years a healthy Matt Stafford has led the team indicate a big pie for Golladay to grab part of.

Year

Attempts

League Rank

2017

570

10

2016

594

11

2015

632

4

2014

604

11

2013

634

5

2012

740

1

2011

666

1

Average

634.3

6.1

Jim Bob Cooter has slowed down the offense in his three years as offensive coordinator, but even while being 27th in neutral pace in 2017, Detroit ranked top 10 in pass attempts due to skewing 63 percent pass. The personnel in Detroit ensures that Stafford gets his passes in.

Extra Opportunity

In addition to the overall pass volume of the offense, Golladay should be afforded some extra opportunity after Eric Ebron was cut.

Player

Targets/Game

Target Share

Eric Ebron

5.4

15.2%

Kenny Golladay

4.4

13.0%

Certainly Golladay won’t receive all of the work vacated by Ebron, but it is unlikely that Luke Willson, who owns a career-high target share of nine percent, absorbs all of it either. Ebron’s absence should put Golladay’s target share floor in the mid-to-upper teens.

Marvin Jones

Golladay’s presence appeared to impact Marvin Jones in the 11 games they played together.

Split

Targets/Game

Target Share

Without Golladay

9.8

24.9%

With Golladay

5.3

15.8%

We should always be cautious of drawing conclusions from small sample sizes, but it is curious to see just how tremendous a force Golladay was on Jones. It could indicate just how highly the team values Golladay, and is particularly interesting within the context of Jones’ contract.

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According to Spotrac, the Lions could save about 13 million dollars on the cap by cutting Jones at the end of 2018. That information has obvious ramifications in dynasty formats, but it’s important to understand how that could potentially impact the 2018 season if the team uses it to evaluate where they stand on the wide receiver group.

Conclusion

There is a lot to like about Golladay’s situation in Detroit, and he is being drafted outside of the top 50 WRs in all formats. On top of the value he brings at that price in a vacuum, he would rapidly rise in value should anything happen to Jones or top target-getter Golden Tate. Buy Golladay now, and profit later.

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